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Is Fault Tree Analysis Deductive?
An odd myth persists in systems engineering and risk analysis circles. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and sometimes fault trees themselves, are said to be deductive. FMEAs are called inductive. How can...
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Belief in Probability – Part 1
Years ago in a meeting on design of a complex, redundant system for a commercial jet, I referred to probabilities of various component failures. In front of this group of seasoned engineers, a highly...
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Common-Mode Failure Driven Home
In a recent post I mentioned that probabilistic failure models are highly vulnerable to wrong assumptions of independence of failures, especially in redundant system designs. Common-mode failures in...
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A New Era of Risk Management?
The quality of risk management has mostly fallen for the past few decades. There are signs of change for the better. Risk management is a broad field; many kinds of risk must be managed. Risk is...
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The Onagawa Reactor Non-Meltdown
On March 11, 2011, the strongest earthquake in Japanese recorded history hit Tohuku, leaving about 15,000 dead. The closest nuclear reactor to the quake’s epicenter was the Onagawa Nuclear Power...
View ArticlePositive Risk – A Positive Disaster
Positive risk is an ill-conceived concept in risk management that makes a mess of things. It’s sometimes understood to be the benefit or reward, imagined before taking some action, for which the risky...
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